Commentaries on the results by:
Vladimir Ivanovich RESHETNYAK
Director of the Agency “Strateg” Ltd.
Coordinator of the Agro-Industrial Club “Zemlyane”
A year ago precisely under the same heading we already published the indices of the temperature anomalies and differences of pressure at the sea level without any commentaries and exclusively with the purpose to record our forecasts in the format of the two "mirror reflections" of the dynamics of the weather markers.
WEATHER MARKERS – Phenomenal results of 2020 …
As you can see, a year later the "mirror reflections" are supplemented by one more seventh year period, and we can consider this progressive repetition of the alternation of indices as a stable cyclic pattern. Hence the logical conclusion is that in 2022 we should expect the return of 1972, which was characterized by the abrupt transition of La Nina to El Niño and, accordingly, the negative dynamics of the Southern Oscillation index. Let us leave the assessment of the impact of El Niño on the crop productivity to the stock analysts and experts of various ranks and of all hues. I will only limit myself to the commentary that for the whole history of the observations since 1950, the seven-year periods of the alternation of the weather markers El Niño and La Nino (dotted rectangles on the graph) and the Southern Oscillation indices which are in the opposite phase to them are the only "mirror reflections" claiming the status of cyclicality. They have justified the forecast expectations for a year three steps ahead, refuted the idle talks about the unpredictability of El Niño and La Nino, and in 2022 they will make a kind of the "be sure shot". If the transition of La Nino into El Niño is repeated again this year as in 1972, there will appear the good reason to assess the impact of the weather markers on the crop productivity and the agrofood market conditions in the country and in the whole world. One more scientific factor with the signs of cyclicality deserves our attention, and for clarity I will present it in the format similar to the weather-climate phenomena.
The seven-year periods of the "mirror reflections" of the Wolf numbers highlighted in the diagram by dotted rectangles at the first glance have a fairly simple explanation justified by the influence of the Jupiter on the solar activity. The sidereal period of the Jupiter,s circulation around the Sun is 11.86 years and it is clear without many words that it repeats its previous sidereal circulation. Therefore, for the perspective of 2022 – 2025 it is logical to expect from the Sun the activity similar to 2011 – 2014 as the "mirror reflection" of the previous Jupiter,s sidereal period. But it is only the tip of the iceberg, figuratively speaking, because the similar dotted periods are a part of the different, more extended thirty-six-year cycle of the "mirror reflection", if you like. It is difficult to present this reflection graphically, and the numerical comparisons would be more appropriate here to justify the extended cyclicality of the solar activity. But for the time being I will refrain from the numerical comparisons since they are less representational for the calendar years than for the seasons, but for the seasons we collect data for the periods from July to June. I will leave this a priori intrigue until getting the results of the current grain season of 2021 – 2022 and there will be the reason to return to it at the beginning of July ...
Зерновой портал Центрального Черноземья